Did social media have a big influence on holiday sales?

Social media is an important component of an expansion stage software company’s marketing strategy. However, a recent survey by market research firm ForeSee Results found that only 5% of online holiday shoppers were influenced by social media this holiday season. The survey was based on about 10,000 responses from November 29 to December 15. Does this mean that social media was not a big factor in holiday purchases this season? Mashable, a social media news website, affirmed that the “power of social media to influence purchase decisions may be overstated”. I found both the statistic and the argument quite shocking. 

The report referred to social media as an “underwhelming driver” and pointed toward mobile as an increasingly important one. Fourteen percent of shoppers used their mobile phones to access the retailer site or the retailer’s mobile app (even though only 2% of them bought anything). Promotional email and search-engine results were bigger influencers!
 Augie Ray of Forrester Research isn’t convinced either and suggests the following to explain what he thinks is occurring with social media:
 Social media marketing is still new and very young. What does this mean? Ray claims that the social media experience isn’t fully developed yet. He says that we’re still in the “brochureware” stage of social media marketing. The term comes from the time when the Web was becoming popular and retailers would convert their collateral into stationary, non-functional web sites. They were trying to model the new medium, i.e. the website, by portraying material from the existing, recognized media. This had nothing to do with the online-shopping experience. However, over time, retailers understood what they were missing and developed their way into creating distinct, unique, easy-to-use websites, which gave consumers the much needed online experience they were seeking. 
 In the same manner, social media marketing will eventually create new, exciting experiences for shoppers, so its current “brochureware” stage should not be used as a conclusion for the potential it holds.
 “I-know-what-influences-me” type data is unreliable. Yes, it is true that we are all bombarded by large amounts of marketing messages every day, but it does not mean we can decipher and separate each and every one of our influencers. For the same reason, asking someone what influences him/her is not the best way to evaluate what really influences them. 
 The ForeSee survey question could also be playing into “third person perception”. This involves people thinking that others are more influenced by media than they are themselves. So, if you ask people if they are influenced by advertising, they might think they are too smart and self-aware to be influenced (despite the billions of dollars advertisers spent to influence everyone, but you)! Therefore, instead of directly asking if consumers are influenced by social media, it is more effective to ask attitudinal and behavioral questions that represent a better and holistic measure of actual influence.
 Social media is not direct marketing and does not drive immediate sales. It is much more about building brand affinity over time, promoting your brand, developing relationships and sharing ideas with users. Thus, the effects of social media are better realized in the longer term. Augie Ray’s blog, The ROI of Social Media Marketing: More Than Dollars and Cents, talks about measuring social media.
 In all, the findings of the ForeSee survey do not tell the entire story. Whether or not social media influenced holiday sales this past season cannot be answered right now given social media’s short lifespan. It’ll take several more years, several more innovative strategies and better, in-depth research before we can come to any significant conclusions concerning the effects of social media on retail sales.