Ipad will be a huge success…

…not on day 1 though this time, but I think in the long haul. Apple is “rebooting” the concept of a computer starting with the iPhone OS, and they’re serious about expanding this platform. It’s not a computer, it’s a device/appliance that’s totally braindead to use. iPad is not itself revolutionary; it’s incremental (and it may not sell that well initially). But keep your eyes on the transformation of the iPhone platform from a niche for mobile devices to a platform for the 95% use cases in computing. The 5% cases (software developer, graphic designer, film editor, etc) will remain hard to solve this way. But the Mac started getting traction again 5 years ago because the web made it possible to run a non-Windows machine and still do most of the things you wanted to do; the iPhone/iPad are designed around the idea that now you don’t even need a “computer”, specifically. You just need access to the web and Facebook and Yelp and Twitter or whatever. Why pay the usability tax of managing (and paying for) a full computer for the 95% use cases? It’s the normal netbook argument but with a twist: netbooks are cheaper, underpowered computers, but they still carry the burden of being essentially laptops. Apple’s implied argument here is that they don’t even have to be that. This will be an interesting one to watch.

The above is taken from Ben Zotto. Software developer extraordinaire. Better known as an “Applications Lead”. Some of Ben’s former work included competitive analysis of music devices for Microsoft, iPhone app developer and industry thought leader. Oh, and my brother.

iPad already has expansion stage companies drooling, my guess…this creates a whole new market much like the iPod did with the music industry.